January 17, 2025
Since Google launched in September 1998, it has never stopped innovating. Whether it was becoming the undisputed leader in web search (with a > 85% market share) or the top player in video with its YouTube acquisition, Google and its management team seldom go into a business to do anything but dominate. However, the success of OpenAI and Microsoft’s ( MSFT ) ChatGPT called that into question early on.
Within a few months, ChatGPT, OpenAI’s large language model (LLM) Chatbot, became history’s fastest growing consumer application. At the same time, Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock Alphabet ( GOOGL ) rushed to launch its ChatGPT-killer named Bard. Unlike ChatGPT, Bard launched to little fan fair, and users consistently found that the application was political and provided inaccurate information.
To make matters worse, Google’s market cap plunged by ~$100 billion in a single session after an AI event held by the company failed to impress investors. Not only did Bard flop, but many Wall Street investors began to call into question whether ChatGPT would eat into Google’s lucrative, cash-cow search business.
In typical fashion, Google did not sit back and feel comfortable taking second place with its fledgling Bard platform. First, Google rebranded its AI Chatbot from “Bard” to “Gemini.” Rather than approaching users as a persona, Gemini now feels like a platform.
In addition, Google has cleaned up its user interface (UI) and has integrated into search. Finally, Gemini is built on a far more advanced large language model capable of understanding images, video, and audio (in addition to text).
Below are three distinct advantages that Gemini has over ChatGPT:
1. Access to Massive Quantities of Data: Large language models must be “trained” on data. In the AI realm, data is power, and no company on Earth has more data than Google.
2. Existing Ecosystem: Whether it is Gmail, YouTube, or Search, Google has an existing client-facing ecosystem that is unmatched. Google can use Gemini within these products to make them even more dominant. Apple ( AAPL ), with which Google has an AI arrangement, showed the power of the ecosystem with its suite of interconnected products.
3. Real-Time Data: Gemini can generate queries on real-time data and is more up-to-date than ChatGPT.
While OpenAI continues to reach sky-high valuations, there are some signs of cracks beneath the surface. In September and October alone, two co-founders, the chief technology officer, and the chief research officer left the company. Meanwhile, another co-founder took a sabbatical. While a power struggle was recently publicized, a plethora of abrupt departures is never a welcome sign.
In addition, Suchir Balaji, a former OpenAI researcher turned whistleblower, was found dead in his San Francisco apartment. In a shocking interview, Balaji’s mother claims that his death was not a suicide and needs to be investigated. Balaji had recently raised concerns about OpenAI’s ethics and was found with a gunshot wound to the head. His mother says that a private autopsy shows that the bullet’s trajectory was downward into Balaji’s head (ruling out a suicide).
Google CEO Sundar Pichai recently announced that OpenAI has surpassed ChatGpt’s capabilities and is doubling down on AI with an ambitious target of 500 million users by the end of the year.
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