Key Takeaways

With a TikTok ban potentially taking effect in the U.S. on Sunday , analysts at Morgan Stanley said other social media platforms could compete for the roughly $10 billion in ad revenue and 32 billion hours users spend on the app each year.

The U.S. Supreme Court on Friday upheld a law requiring TikTok's Chinese parent, ByteDance, to sell the platform or face a shutdown in the U.S. as of Jan. 19 amid national security concerns. That means app stores such as Alphabet's ( GOOGL ) Google Play Store and Apple's ( AAPL ) App Store won't be able to offer TikTok to users in the U.S. after Sunday's deadline, and the app could go "dark" for U.S.-based users.

Meta Could Be Biggest Winner, According to Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley analysts suggested ahead of the decision that Meta ( META ) could be the “largest fundamental winner” if the ban takes effect Sunday, given its large user base and dataset on Instagram, Facebook, and WhatsApp.

They added that for every 10% of U.S. user time currently spent on TikTok that Meta can capture, it could add 30 cents to 60 cents to the company’s estimated roughly $30 in earnings per share in 2026.

“Said another way, META’s ability to capture half of [TikTok]’s time would likely add $1 to $3 to our ‘26 EPS,” the analysts added, noting the biggest gains could come from Instagram Reels, which offers similar short-form video content.

Along With Meta, YouTube Could See More Engagement

YouTube, particularly YouTube Shorts, could also see increased engagement after a TikTok shutdown in the U.S., Morgan Stanley said.

However, Morgan Stanley estimated Shorts monetizes at half the rate of typical YouTube content, meaning the same 10% time share gain might only add a 1% to 2% increase in YouTube ad revenue. That could mean even if YouTube gained a 50% share and Shorts monetized at the standard YouTube rate, ad revenue for its owner Alphabet would increase just 1.2% in 2026, the firm said.

Snapchat, Pinterest, and Roblox Among Contenders

Social media companies Snapchat ( SNAP ) and Pinterest ( PINS ), as well as online gaming entity Roblox ( RBLX ), could also contend for a piece of the ad revenue pie, Morgan Stanley said. However, the analysts warned the companies might need to prove performance, scalability, and returns on ad spending.