January 17, 2025
Last week saw the newest annual earnings release from BlackRock, Inc. ( NYSE:BLK ), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. BlackRock reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$20b and statutory earnings per share of US$42.01, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for BlackRock
Following the latest results, BlackRock's eleven analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$23.6b in 2025. This would be a notable 15% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 7.7% to US$44.28. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$23.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$46.17 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.
The consensus price target held steady at US$1,163, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic BlackRock analyst has a price target of US$1,275 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$1,017. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that BlackRock is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting BlackRock's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 15% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 4.4% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 6.9% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect BlackRock to grow faster than the wider industry.
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for BlackRock. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for BlackRock going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You can also see our analysis of BlackRock's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature.
We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.
It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
