January 14, 2025
We think that it's fair to say that the possibility of finding fantastic multi-year winners is what motivates many investors. Not every pick can be a winner, but when you pick the right stock, you can win big. For example, the Vistra Corp. ( NYSE:VST ) share price is up a whopping 618% in the last three years, a handsome return for long term holders. Also pleasing for shareholders was the 26% gain in the last three months. It really delights us to see such great share price performance for investors.
With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.
See our latest analysis for Vistra
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
During three years of share price growth, Vistra moved from a loss to profitability. Given the importance of this milestone, it's not overly surprising that the share price has increased strongly.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We know that Vistra has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? If you are thinking of buying or selling Vistra stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet .
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return . Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Vistra, it has a TSR of 669% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
We're pleased to report that Vistra shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 318% over one year. That's including the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 52%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Vistra you should be aware of.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature.
We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.
It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
