We’re exactly one week away from the inaugural of the second (non-consecutive) presidential term of Donald Trump. Stock market activity has been fairly volatile since the election results November 5th, first jumping higher across indexes but then re-thinking things a month later. Currently, we’re down between -3.8% (S&P 500) and -7.3% (Russell 2000) over the past month of trading.

This morning, we’re seeing more of the same. The Dow is in the red to the tune of -68 points at this hour, with the S&P -38. The Nasdaq is currently seeing a deeper sell-off, -197 points at this hour. The small-cap Russell is -20.

To be sure, this is not wholly based on the incoming administration. A strong dollar while the rest of the world struggles to keep their economies strengthened — from China to Europe — provides some economic headwinds, even while forecasts for Q4 earnings season appear favorable from this vista ahead of the big banks reporting. JPMorgan Chase JPM helps kick things off with its earnings report Wednesday, where it expects earnings growth of +1.26% and revenues +6.17% year over year.

We’re also up more than 100 basis points (bps) on 10-year Treasury bond yields from mid-September levels. Currently, we’re looking at +4.76%, with +4.39% on the 2-year. These are not figures commensurate with pending lower interest rates in the near-to-medium term. Investors have already abandoned hope for a late-January cut; odds for a March 20 cut by 25 bps are also getting worse, as big economic numbers like a strong Employment Report demonstrate the economy can succeed at current interest rate levels (+4.25-4.50%).

What to Expect from This Trading Week

Aside from JPMorgan earnings Wednesday — which, by the way, will also bring us Q4 results from Citigroup C and Wells Fargo WFC — we’ll see Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers, both for December. Also Retail Sales, Imports/Exports and Housing Starts/Building Permits — also for December — will come out.

Further, manufacturing prints from Empire State and Philly Fed surveys are expected this week, as well as a new Homebuilder Confidence survey, which will present results from early January. We’ll continue to look for signs of weakness, which may help the Fed reach different conclusions relative to monetary policy, but these expectations have been in vain so far in the new year.

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