With estimates ranging over 500,000 vehicles, Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) is racing to establish a new quarterly vehicle delivery record as the fourth quarter ends. Still up for debate, though, is whether this milestone will propel an annual delivery bump.

Before the market starts on Thursday, January 2, Tesla is scheduled to reveal its fourth-quarter and full-year delivery and production data. Analyst estimates point to record-breaking Q4 deliveries only somewhat above 500,000 units. With 515,000 expected deliveries, Barclays analysts projected a year-over-year increase above Tesla's 1.8 million unit annual delivery total.

Though the prospective milestone is noteworthy, Barclays pointed out that Tesla's delivery numbers might have little effect on the stock's broader optimistic picture. Driven instead by market excitement over autonomous vehicles, artificial intelligence, and post-election optimism, the company emphasized that Tesla's fundamentals play a lesser role in its current climb.

After an over 5% drop on Friday, Tesla's shares dropped 2.2% on Monday and closed at $422.41. However, its important to note that the stock jumped over 20% in December. Comparable to cryptocurrencies, Barclays cautioned of a "sharp disconnect" between Tesla's value and fundamentals, implying that technical trading and options had been mostly responsible for the stock's rise.

This article first appeared on GuruFocus .