December 24, 2024
When you buy a stock there is always a possibility that it could drop 100%. But on a lighter note, a good company can see its share price rise well over 100%. For instance, the price of ASML Holding N.V. ( AMS:ASML ) stock is up an impressive 161% over the last five years. The last week saw the share price soften some 2.1%.
Now it's worth having a look at the company's fundamentals too, because that will help us determine if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
See our latest analysis for ASML Holding
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During five years of share price growth, ASML Holding achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 27% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 21% average annual increase in the share price. Therefore, it seems the market has become relatively pessimistic about the company.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
This free interactive report on ASML Holding's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return . Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for ASML Holding the TSR over the last 5 years was 173%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
ASML Holding provided a TSR of 1.5% over the last twelve months. But that return falls short of the market. On the bright side, the longer term returns (running at about 22% a year, over half a decade) look better. It may well be that this is a business worth popping on the watching, given the continuing positive reception, over time, from the market. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand ASML Holding better, we need to consider many other factors. Take risks, for example - ASML Holding has 2 warning signs(and 1 which shouldn't be ignored) we think you should know about.
For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Dutch exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature.
We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.
It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
